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Latest COVID-research (V) – NBER Working Papers

This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).

From the 27 July edition:

NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.

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Underestimated option? Repurposing drugs for treatment of COVID-19

With the main focus on finding a COVID-19 vaccine, policy makers and industry have paid less attention to the development of therapeutics. Within this field, Susan Athey, Rena Conti, Richard Frank and Jonathan Gruber show, the repurosing of existing drugs for treatment of COVID-19 diserves special attention, as the safety of these drugs is already established and their manufacturing well understood. Given that this path is less attractive for private sector investors in comparison to the development of new drugs that can be sold at higher prizes, the authors propose a three-part plan for the U.S. government to incentivice investment and studies into repurposing drugs for COVID-19 treatment. The plan suggests among other things public-private partnerships, clinical development networks and premiums paid for successfully bringing repurposed drugs to the market.

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Latest COVID-research (IV) -NBER Working Papers

This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).

From the 13 July edition:

NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.

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Latest COVID-research (III) -NBER Working Papers

This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).

From the 6 July edition:

NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.

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Latest COVID-research (II) -NBER Working Papers

This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).

From the 29 June edition:

NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.

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Latest COVID-research (I) -NBER Working Papers

This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).

From the 22 June edition:

NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.

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Uncertainty and decision-making during the COVID-19 crisis

COVID-19 has become a major challenge to policymaking. In a context of high uncertainty, rapidly changing circumstances and a highly fluid base of evidence and scientifically-grounded predictions – policy-makers have to take decisions on which human lives and the economy depend. Using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, the authors of this paper propose ways to arrive at decisions that remain valid for a wide range of futures and keep options open, while allowing for a responsible and transparent policy-making process.

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Rotation as Contagion Mitigation

In their new paper, Jeffrey Ely, Andrea Galeotti and Jakub Steiner study how to organize workforce rotation in order to minimize the risk of contagion. Frequent rotation may be advisable if an organization is able to detect/react to infections quickly. Infrequent rotation is optimal when organisations react slowly.

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Waning Immunity and the Second Wave

In this paper, Chryssi Giannitsarou, Stephen Kissler, and Flavio Toxvaerd, consider the optimal social distancing policy in an SEIRS model of the COVID-19 epidemic in which immunity wanes over time. We calibrate the model to the US and consider the effects of different waning periods for the dynamics of the disease and the path of optimal control. We show that the possibility of waning immunity qualitatively changes the trajectory of social distancing even at early stages of the epidemic and that the return to susceptibility creates the potential for a second wave of infection.

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Triage Protocol Design for Pandemic Rationing – new scheme practiced by hospitals of the University of Pittsburgh

Rationing of medical resources is a critical issue in the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, Parag A. Pathak, Tayfun Sönmez, M. Utku Unver, M. Bumin Yenmez develop a model for rationing through a reserve system rather than the so far dominant priority point system. In a reserve system, resources are placed into multiple categories. Priorities guiding allocation of units can reflect different ethical values between these categories. A reserve system provides greater flexibility because it does not dictate a single priority order for the allocation of all units. Instead it allows to balance competing objectives. The paper also discusses several practical considerations with triage protocol design.

The proposed reserve system has been put to a test when the 40 hospitals of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center recently had to ration the antiviral Rendesivir and employed the system to steer allocation.